The dust has yet to settle from the 13% crash on January 30th, but the question on every investor's mind is simple: What now?
The market is witnessing an unprecedented divergence in expert opinion. While some view this as a necessary clearing of "froth," others see it as the beginning of a deep bear cycle. Here is a breakdown of the major forecasts for 2026.
The Bull Case: Citi Sees $150
Citigroup remains the most aggressive bull on the street. They have described silver's recent performance as "gold on steroids." Their analysis points to:
- Capital Flows: Continued inflows into ETFs despite short-term volatility.
- Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing global instability driving demand for safe-haven assets (even if today's price action defied that logic).
- Gold-to-Silver Ratio: A collapsing ratio that historically favors a massive silver catch-up rally.
Alan Hibbard of GoldSilver concurs, anticipating silver to trade comfortably above $100 in 2026 due to deepening supply deficits.
The Bear Case: J.P. Morgan Warns of $50
On the other side of the spectrum, Marko Kolanovic (formerly of J.P. Morgan) has issued a stark warning. Characterizing the 2025-2026 rally as a "speculative mania," he warns that silver could crash back down to $50 per ounce.
His argument rests on the asset's historical volatility. When the "hot money" leaves, it leaves fast—as we saw today. If the Fed indeed turns hawkish under a potential Warsh chairmanship, the liquidity that fueled the bubble could dry up instantly.
The Moderate View: HSBC's $68 Target
HSBC offers a middle-ground perspective. They have raised their forecast but remain grounded in fundamentals. They expect silver to average $68.25 in 2026.
Their thesis relies on persistent physical tightness (demand exceeding supply) and strong industrial consumption, balanced against the macroeconomic headwinds of a strong dollar.
Conclusion: Volatility is the Only Certainty
If there is one thing all analysts agree on, it is volatility. The days of steady, quiet gains are over. Investors entering the silver market in 2026 must be prepared for violent swings in both directions.